Unbalanced tourism: which European destinations are potentially vulnerable?

Tourism brings multiple benefits to cities, such as urban renewal and economic and socio-cultural opportunities for residents, as well as revenue for local administrations – it is linked to 9% of EU’s employment in 2023. There can be several trade-offs though. Because urban tourism tends to be concentrated in limited parts of the cities, issues like crowding, pollution, competition for land and for housing might emerge, creating indirect costs.

Large concentration of tourists in a specific destination, or “too many people in one place at a given time”, could suggest unbalanced tourism development. Unbalanced tourism can take a toll on cities, landmarks and landscapes, potentially affecting the housing market and the cost of living, and putting a strain on resources such as fresh water – ultimately damaging a destination’s long-term attractiveness. But there isn’t a definition of what constitutes unbalanced tourism, and different tourist destinations may have different carrying capacities.

Data from the EU Tourism Dashboard for the period 2019-2023 confirm southern coastal regions and many capital regions as the EU’s travel hotspots – this applies year-round, including the cold season. While tourism levels are manageable in most of the EU, this industry can be particularly intense in some destinations, overexposing their economies to sudden sectoral shocks. The dashboard displays data for several indicators that can help recognise the potential warning signs of unbalanced tourism in certain destinations. This knowledge can help policy makers design timely place-based policies and mitigate risks.

The most popular destinations

One way to determine the most attractive tourist destinations is to consider the number of nights spent in tourist accommodations. Such data is collected at the level of provinces or districts (NUTS3 subnational division). According to the dashboard, in 2023 Mallorca was the most visited destination, recording over 51 million overnight stays, followed by Paris, with nearly 44 million, and Rome with 41 million. Between 30 and 40 million nights are spent in other Spanish and Italian destinations: Barcelona, Venice, Bolzano, Tenerife, Alicante and Madrid. In other countries, Berlin, Croatia’s Istria peninsula, Amsterdam, and the Greek Cyclades islands recorded between 25 and 29 million overnight stays in 2023.

Recent trends show two-fold increases compared to 2019 in Copenhagen, Cork and the Kop van Noord-Limburg and Noord-Limburg in the Netherlands, all adding between 3 and 5 million overnight stays. Porto and Athens also registered substantial increases of around 60%, adding 3 and 3.5 million overnight stays, respectively. Barcelona, which was already in 2019 one of the most established tourist destinations, added 5.6 million overnight stays, a 16% increase.

Taking tourism typologies into account, the concentration of tourism in certain destinations becomes even more apparent. Nearly 63% of all nights spent in 2023 were in either coastal or city tourism destinations, despite accounting for only 33% of all the EU’s surface.

However, the total number of overnight stays provides only a partial picture of potential unbalanced tourism. Other indicators in the EU Tourism Dashboard provide more context.

Mapping unbalanced tourism

Measuring the intensity and seasonality of tourism can be particularly relevant to determine potential economic imbalances of tourism development in a given destination. Tourism intensity is the number of nights spent at tourist accommodations divided by the resident population. It is an indicator of economic dependence on tourism, potentially also revealing strain on resources and vulnerability to demand shocks when the intensity is particularly high. Tourism seasonality is number of nights spent in the three most visited months in relation to the total nights spent. Seasonality measures the temporal concentration of tourism activity during the year, potentially revealing unbalanced pressure and economic activity, as well as vulnerability to demand shocks.

Croatia and Greece score very high on both tourism intensity and seasonality. A high tourism intensity combined with high tourism seasonality indicates potential risks associated with a high dependence on the tourism industry and high concentration of the activity in few months of the year, making them particularly sensitive to sudden sectoral shocks. Cyprus has a tourism seasonality around average EU levels but scores also very high on tourism intensity. Moreover, 55% of nights spent in Cyprus correspond to visitors from only 3 countries – this is the highest value in the EU, and a potential source of vulnerability.

Malta and Austria are amongst the countries with the highest tourism intensity, which is however balanced with some of the lowest seasonality across the EU. Conversely, Bulgaria is the second most seasonal tourist destination, but its tourism intensity is much lower than the EU average. In terms of emerging trends between 2019 and 2023, Ireland stands out with an increase in tourism intensity and seasonality by 15% and 11%, respectively.

The map below show tourism intensity at sub-regional level. The top 100 destinations by tourism intensity have an average of 44 nights spent per resident, which compares with the EU average of 6 nights spent per resident. The majority of such destinations are located in Germany, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, Austria and Croatia, and generally along EU’s coastlines and mountain areas. Peaks of 115 to 145 nights were registered in Istria (Croatia) and the islands of Corfu, Kalymnos, Karpathos, Kos and Rodos (Greece), and Fuerteventura and Lanzarote (Spain). Also Nordic country destinations tend to score high on tourism intensity. The least tourism intense destinations are in the Eastern EU countries.

Seasonality cannot be completely avoided due to climate patterns and holiday calendars, but excessive values can contribute to economic instability and vulnerability. Overall for the EU, seasonality showed a slight reduction from 43.2% to 42.4% between 2019 and 2023, with the regions with the highest seasonality in 2019 experiencing the strongest reductions.

As shown in the map below, seasonality tends to be higher in coastal regions, and the lowest in destinations with large cities (city tourism). Some coastal regions in Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, Croatia, Romania, Greece and Hungary (Lake Balaton) concentrate more than 70% of their nights spent during the 3 most visited months, which can be seen a strong unbalance. The subsequent map classifies each region according to the trend in seasonality between 2019 and 2023, underscoring a majority of destinations with decreasing seasonality, but with few and sparse destinations in central and northern Europe showing an increasing trend in the same period.

Finally, combining information from the two indicators allows to identify which destinations are affected by very high intensity, very high seasonality, or both (see map below). Such information can be of value for destination benchmarking, identifying issues and defining strategies to avoid risks of unbalanced tourism. 

Understanding the extent of these issues and their reasons is necessary to manage tourism in a way that maximizes the benefits to all. Ongoing research at the Commission is trying to better grasp the social impacts of tourism, looking at resident’s perceptions and housing affordability issues.

Background

Launched in 2022, the EU Tourism Dashboard was developed by the European Commission, following a request by EU Member States to design a tool for monitoring the twin transition and resilience of the tourism ecosystem. The dashboard is developed in cooperation with Eurostat and in coordination with the EU Member States. It contributes to the Transition Pathway for Tourism, created in collaboration with public and private EU tourism stakeholders to identify areas of action for the green and digital transition and for improving the resilience of tourism sector in the EU. The Dashboard is continuously improving with new indicators. Taking into account additional factors, such as the number of day-visitors in very touristic places, would allow for even more thorough analyses of the impacts of unbalanced tourism.

Related links

EU Tourism Dashboard

Author: Joint Research Centre